Winners and Losers – 2025 Halftime Report
Market Turbulence, Tariffs, and Tax cuts, what a start it’s been to 2025. It’s time to look at who the biggest winners and losers are in the financial markets for the first half of 2025, as well as some personal updates from our team. If you want to skip ahead to the company updates it starts at page 4!
In the financial markets
Winners
International Stocks
International stocks are off to a strong start, with the EAFE Index (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) up 19%. This compares to the S&P 500, which is up 6%. While this is an above-average start to the year for U.S. stocks, they have been handily outperformed by their international counterparts. This is a good example of why it's important for investors to stay diversified and include international stocks in their investment strategies.
Gold
Gold had a stellar first-half performance, rising 27%. Concerns about the growing federal deficit and a weakening dollar pushed it to new highs. We maintain a small gold allocation in many of our investment strategies, and it has been one of the top-performing components so far this year.
Tax Cuts
With the signing of the Big Beautiful Bill Act, the tax cuts passed in 2018 will be made permanent (they had been set to sunset at the end of 2025). This is generally viewed as positive news for the stock market, although it may raise concerns about the federal deficit.
In addition to making the 2018 tax cuts permanent, the bill includes several other tax code changes, ranging from the new deductibility of car loan interest to an increased standard deduction for seniors, subject to an income phase-out. The bill contains over 1,000 pages of such changes, and we will likely discuss them with you at your next meeting to see if you can take advantage of any of these tax updates.
Losers
Volatility & Tariffs
Although most major markets are up year-to-date, the path to get here has been a bit rocky. While the market’s initial response to Trump’s election was positive, stocks quickly took a dive when his focus shifted to tariffs. March and April both saw considerable losses, with major stock market indexes down as much as 19%. The markets have since recovered, almost as quickly as they fell, allowing disciplined investors who stayed invested to recover their losses. This is a strong reminder of the importance of staying invested through downturns and, if possible, using those periods as buying and rebalancing opportunities.
Federal Debt & Deficit
As both the federal deficit and debt continue to grow at concerning rates, doubts are rising about the United States' ability to repay its obligations in the future. A third credit rating agency downgraded the U.S. from AAA to Aa1. We’ve also seen central banks from other nations begin to sell their U.S. Treasuries, another worrying sign. The long-term risks this presents, such as rising interest rates, a weakening dollar, and the potential for inflation, could create a challenging environment for investors to navigate.
China
Although their stock market has begun to recover, China's economy faces headwinds from a prolonged property downturn, demographic shifts, and trade tensions. While government stimulus efforts are expected to provide some offset, real GDP growth is projected to decelerate to 4.4% in 2025, according to EY.
At Gevers Wealth Management, LLC
Winners
Happy Parents Trey and Nicole
Trey and Nicole welcomed a new baby to their family, Cameron Scott Gevers! They are doing great as new parents and just took Cameron on his vacation to Hawaii.
Happy Grandparents Willy and Vivienne
Willy and Vivienne are overjoyed with their new role as Cameron’s grandparents. It’s safe to say Christmases just got a lot more fun at the Gevers’ household.
Andrea’s Wedding
Andrea, our new director of client operations, got married to her husband Jim this September at the beautiful Columbia Gorge.
Katie and Garrett’s Post-Engagement Trip
Garrett and his fiancé Katie were able to go on an amazing trip to Europe this summer. Starting on the Amalfi coast with a tour of Pompeii, they continued to Greece, stopping in Santorini, the island of Naxos, and ending off in Athens. It was an amazing trip, and they are very grateful for the time spent together.
Volunteer Positions
Willy continues his position as a board member and the treasurer of Stronger Families, who work to strengthen the families of military members and first responders. Our whole team attended their annual fundraising gala this year which was a blast!
Garrett has taken on a new role as vice president for the CFA Society of Seattle. They continue to work to promote professional excellence, education, and ethical behavior in the local investment community.
Even with a new baby, Trey continues to volunteer with high schoolers as a part of YoungLife.
Closing Notes
It is an honor to serve all our clients, and we were blessed to see the positive impact prudent investing and planning has had for them and their families. We stay committed to your financial success and look forward to both the opportunities and challenges the rest of this year will bring with it.