Winners and Losers – 2026 Halftime Report

The first half of 2026 is officially in the books, and it has been an eventful six months both in the global financial markets and here at Gevers Wealth Management.

The year opened with geopolitical shocks that rocked global markets and closed the second quarter with the largest IPO in stock market history. Meanwhile, closer to home, our team celebrated new hires, expanding families, and community impact.

Let’s look at the winners and losers of the first half of 2026.

In the Financial Markets

Winners

Small Companies

The Russell 2000, which tracks small US companies, is up over 20% so far this year more than doubling the return of the S&P 500. Incorporating an allocation to small companies has proved lucrative to its investors. Small companies are included in many broad US stock funds like the ones offered by DFA. Small-cap outperformance can also be an indicator of a healthy widening market expansion.

Energy Stocks

Driven by the massive energy infrastructure requirements of the ongoing AI revolution and compounded by the conflict in Iran, the Vanguard Energy Index posted a 21.8% gain (peaking near 30% earlier in the year). While oil prices pulled back after spiking past $112/barrel in April due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Energy remains one of the market's top-performing sectors.

AI driven Economic Growth

The United States is in the middle of an AI Revolution, which has triggered massive capital expenditures to build out data centers, produce semiconductors, and develop AI tools. All this activity is driving the strong economic growth the US is seeing. Notably, this surge in productivity and infrastructure build-out has shown resilience to higher interest rates, a dynamic that may face further testing later in the year if interest rates continue to climb.

Using Diversified Strategies

While international equities, domestic large-caps, small-caps, and bonds all posted positive returns for the first half of the year, the real victory belonged to diversification. Holding a blended combination of these assets produced a far smoother ride through the 10% market correction at the onset of the Iran conflict than holding one of them individually. Staying diversified is one of the key tools long-term investors can use to manage risk.

Maintaining Liquid Reserves

When geopolitical friction triggered the 10% pullback in April, it served as a vivid reminder of market history: historically, 7 out of 10 calendar years experience a correction of 10% or more. Keeping disciplined reserves in money market funds, high-yield savings, and short-term bonds, helps reduce the likelihood that investors are forced to liquidate equities to fund spending needs during a market trough.

SpaceX IPO

The biggest IPO in history gave investors everywhere something to watch in June. So far, its performance has been just as exciting as its story. Selling rockets and building space-based data centers captured the market’s imagination, launching the stock from its $135/share IPO price to over $220/share, before retracing to under $155/share within two weeks. At its peak, its loftier valuations surpassed giants like Amazon and TSMC, offering investors a true rocket ship ride of volatility.

Losers

Pain at the Pump

Directly tied to the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, gas prices jumped over 60% from the start of the year, squeezing household budgets.

Gold as a Safe Haven

After a hot start to 2026, gold bucked its traditional "safe haven" reputation during wartime, dropping nearly 25% from its March peak. This unusual decline was likely accelerated by speculative traders unwinding positions after gold's prior two-year bull run.

Inflation Targets

Driven by rising energy costs, inflation ticked back upward in recent data releases. Because energy is an input cost for virtually every consumer good, its stickiness remains a key risk factor. Historically, rising inflation forces interest rates higher, which can cause investment drops like the one we saw in 2022. Thankfully, core inflation has remained steady which is largely why the high inflation readings have not spooked investors so far.

Stock Valuations

Equity valuations across the US stock market, particularly anything connected to AI, remain high. While high valuations do not guarantee an immediate correction, especially given the real productivity gains being generated, history shows that unwinding highly concentrated tech bubbles can take years to recover (the Nasdaq took 15 years to reclaim its 2000 peak). While many of the signs of extreme bubbles are missing currently, valuations are high enough that risk would be considered elevated. A common strategy to help manage this risk is to avoid overconcentration in hot sectors and maintain diversification mandates even when market performance makes it difficult to.

Widening Wealth Gap

A widening divergence has emerged between high-earning households and those feeling the squeeze of sticky inflation. This economic split is clearly visible on Wall Street, where high-end luxury retailers continue to drastically outperform discount retailers over a rolling three-year period.

Debt Levels

The US federal debt-to-GDP ratio continues to hover above 120%. Typically, a period of strong economic growth allows a nation to shrink its debt burden, but widening fiscal deficits and compounding interest expenses are keeping debt levels high. Adding a war to the equation this year certainly did not help government spending levels, and we continue to monitor this situation as it has potentially long lasting impacts on dollar and asset pricing within the United States.

At Gevers Wealth Management

Winners

New Team Member, Spencer Gevers

We are thrilled to welcome Spencer Gevers to the firm as our newest Client Service Associate. If the last name sounds familiar, Spencer is Willy’s middle son and Trey’s brother! Spencer spent the last four years honing his client-relationship skills in software sales, and after graduating with a business degree from the Western Governors University, joined Gevers Wealth Management. He and his wife, Emily, are Washington natives and live in Newcastle with their cat, Millie. You can read his full profile on Spencer's Bio Page.

Trey and Nicole’s Growing Family

‍ The Gevers family expanded in April with the arrival of baby Weston Gevers! Big brother Cameron is already a huge fan of the new addition, and so far, Weston is earning rave reviews for his excellent sleeping habits.

Andrea’s Return to the Links

Andrea has rediscovered her childhood passion for golf, sparked by her youngest son, Roman, transitioning from football to the golf course. It has turned into a wonderful family affair with multiple spring outings. Be sure to ask her who holds the lowest handicap in the household next time you speak!

Volunteering

Our team remained deeply embedded in Pacific Northwest philanthropy this spring:

Willy joined the board of the Washington Wildlife and Recreation Commission to help preserve and expand state parks and wildlife habitat. You can read more about Willy’s role and the non-profit’s goals in their Welcome Letter.

Additionally, he and his wife, Vivienne, assumed the joint Presidency of the board for Stronger Families, continuing their dedication to military and first-responder families.

Trey continued his mentorship with Young Life and is preparing to lead a group of high school students to a week-long camp retreat in Canada this summer.

Andrea works with the Down Syndrome Center of Puget Sound. As part of this she attended and supported their yearly fashion show fundraiser which successfully raised over $400,000!

Garrett (myself) continues to serve on the board of the CFA Society of Seattle, working with over 1,100 local financial professionals to champion ethical business practices and professional excellence in our regional financial community.

Garrett and Katie’s honeymoon in Hawaii

Katie and I kicked off the year with a beautiful January honeymoon in Hawaii after a September wedding. We enjoyed phenomenal winter weather, plenty of beach time, and the unique privilege of daily humpback whale sightings during the peak of whale-watching season.

Losers

Willy’s unfortunately timed trip to Hawaii

While Katie and I found perfect weather in January, Willy and Vivienne weren't quite as lucky in February. Their highly anticipated two-week trip to Maui coincided with one of the stormiest, rainiest periods in recent Hawaiian history, complete with resort flooding and closed beaches.

Fortunately, they made the absolute most of it (including an incredible dinner at Merriman’s). Besides, they aren't feeling too discouraged: they got to welcome their second and third grandchildren into the world over the very same six-month stretch!

Closing Note

It is an honor to serve all our clients, and we were grateful to see the positive impact prudent investing and disciplined planning has had for you and your families. We remain committed to your financial success and look forward to both the opportunities and challenges the rest of this year will bring.

Disclaimer: This commentary is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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